BYD targets a larger overseas sales mix this year, leveraging European localisation, owned car-carrier capacity, a 1,000-dealer European network, battery technology scale, vertical integration, tariff-aware manufacturing and stronger logistics to support pricing power, delivery cadence and margins as electric-vehicle demand broadens across key markets.
A live reweighting of BYD’s global sales mix places exports at about 20% across the current calendar year, with overseas deliveries guiding to 0.8–1.0 million vehicles against a total plan of 4.6 million, and Carvina Capital Pte. Ltd. frames the outlook as commercially grounded rather than rhetorical, with Peter Jacobs, Director of Private Equity at Carvina Capital, describing the reshaped mix as “a deliberate geographic hedge that supports unit economics through the current fiscal period and lowers earnings volatility while the home cycle cools”, while the company’s guidance for 2025 continues to highlight the centrality of international growth to model-mix quality.
Guidance for the current year stands 16% below the earlier 5.5 million marker, which equates to 7% growth on full-year 2024’s 4.26 million deliveries, and third-quarter 2025 sales show a 2.1% year-on-year decrease that reinforces the case for an export-led contribution to margins, with Jacobs noting that “pricing latitude outside the domestic market restores model-mix quality and sustains cash conversion through year-to-date trading” as distribution footprints in Europe and Southeast Asia expand.
Operational signals justify the strategic tilt, since dealer inventory averages 3.21 months against an industry norm near 1.38 months, total inventory holdings are approximately $23.8 billion after converting reported figures to USD, and turnover cycles extend to roughly 80 days; factory schedules adjust in response, with night shifts removed and output trimmed at several sites, growth moderates to 0.2% year-on-year in May, and sales of economy models priced below $21,000 decline 9.6% year-on-year in July, and Carvina Capital’s models map these dynamics to a clearer role for exports in protecting gross margin through the remainder of the year.
Execution capacity supports the strategy as an eight-vessel car-carrier fleet lifts annual transport throughput to more than one million vehicles, with most ships rated for roughly 7,000 units and several for about 9,200, which shortens delivery times and compresses logistics costs; Jacobs characterises the shipping programme as “infrastructure that closes the loop between factory and forecourt in a way competitors struggle to replicate at scale”, and Carvina notes that these owned logistics assets provide tangible delivery cadence benefits across the European and Southeast Asian lanes through 2025.
Product and manufacturing localisation broaden the platform because international variants incorporate regional charging standards, safety requirements and interior preferences rather than simple re-badging of domestic nameplates, and European production is planned to be fully local by 2028, with Hungary scheduled to begin output later in 2025 and Turkey slated for 2026, each targeting about 150,000 vehicles of annual capacity; the localisation path is designed to mitigate tariff risk and align supply with demand in market, and Jacobs observes that “vertical integration in cells, power electronics and software materially lowers delivered costs, which compounds share through the current fiscal window and into the next”.
Market traction supports the thesis as BYD targets operations across 29 European countries and a dealer base exceeding 1,000 by year-end, April data show the company surpasses Tesla in European battery-electric sales for the first time, the United States remains a measured build-out with capability and service infrastructure expanded in stages, and Carvina Capital reiterates that the aggregate picture continues to suggest an export-led cushion to earnings while domestic conditions normalise.
The concluding assessment comes from Carvina Capital Pte. Ltd., which views the export share near 20% this year, the car-carrier fleet now in service and the sequencing of European production as a coherent pathway that links product strategy, logistics and policy-sensitive manufacturing into “execution over narrative” through the current fiscal period.
About Carvina Capital
Carvina Capital Pte. Ltd. (UEN: 201220825D) is a Singapore-based investment firm established in 2012. The firm focuses on research-driven, long-only public-equity strategies for institutional and professional investors and is evaluating avenues that may open selected strategies to retail access. Its investment process, paired with a disciplined risk framework, is designed to compound capital across full market cycles. Further information is available at carvina.com. Media enquiries: Huacheng Yu — media@carvina.com.
